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VP Picks and Chances of a President Dying in Office

After McCain picked a relatively unqualified and inexperienced Sarah Palin, many people gasped at the possibility of Palin having to take over the presidency in case something happens to McCain. I think McCain dying in office is overstated considering he appears healthy and fit despite the recurrence of a malignant melanoma. Plus, he has been getting great healthcare due to his status and will continue to do so whether or not he wins the presidency.

That said, it would be nice to get numbers on chances of McCain's survival as a function of his age. Thankfully, that information was provided by Alex Burns at Politico.
The odds of a 72-year-old man living four more years, or one full White House term, are better. But for a man who has lived 72 years and 67 days (McCain’s age on Election Day this year), there is between a 14.2 and 15.1 percent chance of dying before Inauguration Day 2013, according to the Social Security Administration’s 2004 actuarial tables and the authoritative 2001 mortality statistics assembled by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners.

Going by the Social Security Administration’s tables, that’s nearly ten times the likelihood that a man aged 47 years and 92 days (Barack Obama’s age on Election Day this year) will die before Jan. 20, 2013.
Given McCain's 15% chance of not making it through his first term, it is indeed reckless for him to choose a VP who has no experience on the national stage at all.

I worry that Obama's chances of not making it through his first term are probably much higher than the 1.5% statistics suggest. This is because Obama is a target for many radical groups who would want to assassinate him. Many charismatic leaders who capture the world's attention have too often fallen victim to the bullet of a troubled radical with extremist agenda. Fortunately, he picked Joe Biden, a very capable VP who can take over the presidency in case of a major trajedy.

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