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Liberalism and Conservatism - By the Numbers

I don't care much for politics and the only reason I blog about it is because I like Barack Obama. Today, I found a side of politics that could appeal to a "numbers guy" like myself. Paul Krugman cited the Poole-Rosenthal-McCarty model to determine how liberal or conservative Obama and McCain really are. Given the general perception that Obama is a big city ultra-liberal and that McCain is a centrist republican, a well-thought model was necessary to substantiate/debunk these perceptions. Instead of defining liberalism and conservatism on the basis of a person's stand on abortion, gun rights, gay rights, ... etc, I want to see a comprehensive study of all economic and social values. That's why I love Poole-Rosenthal-McCarty model.

I read that Michael Dukakis' (1988) and John Kerry's (2004) lost in their presidential bids mainly because republicans labeled as elite, liberal, unpatriotic and out-of-touch. Apparently such labels really turn off the American electorate, particularly conservatives. In the upcoming election, it appears my candidate of choice, Barack Obama will certainly be subject the same labels, but I sure hope he will overcome it.

Based on the Poole-Rosenthal-McCarty model, I want to make the following observations.

  • There clearly is a left-right or liberal-conservative divide in terms of voting record. Most members of the senate and congress lie on either extreme, and there are very few centrists.
  • Obama is not as liberal as republicans make him out to be. He is a fairly moderate democrat. McCain is also a moderate republican, but he appears a little closer to the center than Obama is. Bush, on the other hand, is a radical/extreme conservative.
  • The most interesting conclusion from this model is the evolution of partisan politics over time. In 1980, the congress appeared much less partisan than it is now. One can clearly see an overlap between democrats' and republicans' liberalism/conservatism in the 1980s, particularly in the House. The senate appears to have been very divided in the time period observed here.
I hope people would use rigorous models like this to dispel myths about candidates so that the general population does not get cheated by false notions and labels in this election cycle.

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